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Thursday, December 1, 2022

Russian missiles (inadvertently) strike Poland

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American and Polish troopers work collectively in navy maneuvers in Poland, Oct. 15, 2022.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 16, 2022 · 1:08:46 AM +00:00

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And it is a little bit of a walk-back—missile “almost definitely” produced in Russia, and nonetheless no information on who fired it. 

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The geopolitical ramifications are large. They should get this proper. 

UPDATE: Tuesday, Nov 15, 2022 · 11:15:04 PM +00:00

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UPDATE: Tuesday, Nov 15, 2022 · 9:32:08 PM +00:00

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Higher. 

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Get the details. The alliance has already gamed out how it could reply on this eventuality. Let the details come out, after which we see what’s subsequent. Hopefully, it means higher and extra weapons for Ukraine. 

UPDATE: Tuesday, Nov 15, 2022 · 9:29:25 PM +00:00

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Not useful. 

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Presently, we don’t know the place this missile got here from. However, let’s assume for a second that it’s confirmed Russian, then what? What’s Menendez threatening right here precisely? If you wish to make Russia pay, begin delivering ATACMS long-range rockets to Ukraine, to allow them to strike even deeper behind enemy strains (together with the Kerch Bridge, nonetheless beneath restore). 

Truthfully, Russia has executed lots sufficient to benefit “vital penalties.” At this level, we ought to be doing every part potential to arm Ukraine within the quick time period with ATACMS and Bradley infantry preventing automobiles, and within the long-term with F-16 fighter jets. However none of that’s inside Mendendez’ management. He’s a senator, not the Commander in Chief. 

UPDATE: Tuesday, Nov 15, 2022 · 8:30:08 PM +00:00 · kos

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The worry is that the brand new Republican Home may be extra hostile to Ukrainian assist. Word that Joe Biden has a backup plan in that case—for one, go this assist now, within the lame-duck session. However past that, the Lend-Lease Act permits Biden to maintain delivering weapons to Ukraine with out extra congressional motion. That is only a clearer, simpler, extra clear method. Both approach, Ukraine has nothing to worry as long as Biden stays president. 

Effectively, issues are about to get attention-grabbing. 

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Russia launched round 100 missiles and drones in opposition to Ukrainian civilian infrastructure right this moment—the biggest for the reason that warfare started—with the clear goal to unfold terror, and to additionally knock out Ukraine’s vitality grid. (Ukraine claims that 73 of the missiles have been shot down, which can or is probably not true.) If anybody wonders why Ukraine is profitable the warfare, it’s as a result of Ukraine knocks out Russia’s logistical hubs and depots, whereas Russia would somewhat kill civilians and inconvenience them this winter within the chilly. In the meantime, Ukrainian trains run just about unimpeded, supplying Ukraine’s warfare effort on the fronts. 

This warfare has laid naked Russia’s incompetence from high to backside, and that extends to the effectiveness of their weaponry. The truth that two Russian cruise missiles missed their Ukrainian goal and landed in Polish territory isn’t stunning; what is stunning is that it hadn’t occurred till now. That two folks have been killed within the assault raises the stakes.

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The 2 missiles hit 100 kilometers from their presumed supposed goal of Lviv, so some individuals are skeptical it was a mistake, however I’d be shocked if Russia was concerned with escalating with NATO. They’re already shedding the warfare. The very last thing they want is both Poland or NATO participating. If the goal was navy, maybe a provide depot or rail head feeding Western weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, there could be logic to such an assault. They hit a farm. This doesn’t make any sense past “oh shit, we missed … by lots.” 

So the large query is: Will Poland invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty Group? And the reply to that’s: unlikely. Article 4 permits for consultations between the allies, and that’s virtually assuredly going to occur. They’ll demand a proof and apology from Russia. The alliance will speak about strengthening its Polish entrance. Possibly they’ll rush extra air protection models to the border space. But it surely appears inconceivable that both aspect is keen to make use of this error to escalate additional. At most, NATO may ship an “if it occurs yet another time …” message that can pressure Russia to keep away from additional hitting western Ukraine, lest it screw it once more. Russia already backed all the way down to Turkish threats on the Black Sea grain deal, so they’re not at present working from a place of power.

There isn’t any likelihood the alliance hasn’t gamed out this chance already. Now we wait and see what Poland’s and the alliance’s reposes will probably be. 

In the meantime, I wish to as soon as once more stress the inadequacy of the Russian missile barrage. Ultimately depend, Russia spent lots of of thousands and thousands of {dollars} on its dwindling provide of missiles to knock out energy for 7 million Ukrainian residents. Russia is shedding the warfare, and but it continues to prioritize terrorism in opposition to civilians versus hitting militarily helpful targets. It is a victory for Ukraine. Ukrainian forces are at present dashing from the Kherson entrance to strengthen their positions within the Donbas, the place Russia continues its human-wave assaults on Bakhmut and Pavlivka. And as an alternative of hitting the rail and logistical strains making this shift potential, Russia hits energy era amenities and residence complexes as an alternative. Russia’s techniques are merciless, undoubtedly, however they’re additionally unfathomably silly. 


With the fog of warfare cleared considerably round Kherson, it’s clear that all the rumors about Ukrainian forces crossing the Dnipro into Russian-held territory have been false. There may be zero proof of any Ukrainian incursions previous the river, and no one is making these claims anymore. Whether or not it was irrational exuberance, informational psyops, or one thing else, it appears more and more clear that Ukraine is pleased with the present Kherson borders and can fortunately use the spare navy capability to strengthen its different fronts. 

In the meantime, I think my principle will maintain—that Russia will withdraw all forces out of vary of 155mm artillery, so about 15 to 25 miles from the Dnipro River, and locals in a few of these “grey zone” villages will put up Ukrainian flags, “liberating” their territory. However there may be little motive for Ukraine (or Russia) to militarily occupy these villages for now. 


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These updates are at all times attention-grabbing, however this is without doubt one of the finest in a very long time. Julia leads with the speak of revolution, which itself is a outstanding acknowledgement. However listening in, these pundits are very specific about their “social contract”—the politicians are left to rule Russia as they see match, together with their grift, as long as the individuals are allowed to steer their lives in relative peace. The mobilization violated that contract, the Russian folks now have pores and skin within the sport, and Russia’s rulers must be more and more cautious of, as one of many pundits put it, “annoyance.” We all know Russians are docile folks, however they do have a historical past of revolution. Now could be nearly as good a time for one as any. 

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